Destructive Eaton Fire Resulted in Most Losses Due to Flame Spread Risk, According to Findings Revealed in a Report
In a recent analysis, Cotality, formerly known as CoreLogic, has shed light on the discrepancy between wildfire hazard and conflagration risk, particularly in wildfire-prone regions. The company's findings reveal that conflagration hazard, which considers structure density, characteristics, weather, and climate, differs from wildfire risk. While properties may be assessed as low or moderate wildfire hazard, they can still face high or very high conflagration risk. This was evident in the Eaton Fire that occurred in early January in Los Angeles County. Forty-eight percent of the destroyed properties in the Palisades Fire, another significant blaze, fell into the low-to-moderate wildfire hazard category but had high conflagration hazard. Cotality's analysis of the Palisades Fire found that 37% of properties within the perimeter were classified as low-to-moderate wildfire hazard yet had high conflagration hazard. Similarly, 84% of structures affected or destroyed by the Eaton Fire had a very high conflagration hazard. The transition between wildfire environments fundamentally alters the fire's behavior, impacting how it spreads, where it travels, and the scale of its potential destruction. In fact, the company reported that at least 10 major wildfire-induced conflagrations have destroyed more than 26,000 structures in the past five years. The drought and high winds affecting Southern California at the time created conditions that led to the destruction of thousands of homes by conflagration. These metros, including Austin, TX; Denver, CO; Bend, OR; and Flagstaff, AZ, have a high wildfire risk due to their homes' proximity to nature and the increasing number of homes being built in the wildland-urban interface. Nearly half (approximately 1.2 million) of the 2.6 million Western U.S. homes with moderate or greater wildfire risk carry a combined reconstruction cost value of $1.3 trillion. Jamie Knippen, Cotality's wildfire product manager, emphasized the need for homeowners to be aware of their risk and the different mitigation efforts that can make their property more resilient. To date, more than $17 billion in claims have already been paid on the wildfires. The Palisades and Eaton fires, for instance, destroyed more than 16,000 structures and damaged another 2,046. Knippen stated that the structures in the Eaton Fire were densely packed and many were older homes that weren't as mitigated as they potentially could have been. Cotality conducted a retrospective analysis of the Eaton Fire using two of its wildfire products. These findings underscore the importance of understanding and addressing conflagration risks, especially in wildfire-prone areas, to protect homes and communities.
